The historic-home market, 2027–2030
Twin Cities metro · owner-occupied, paintable pre-1940 housing from county assessor records · August 2026
97,223
Historic homes that fit our criteria
45,247
Never knocked, mailed, or estimated — 47%
$380M
Untouched inventory at $8,400 avg job
26%
Historic revenue CAGR since 2022
The read: after five years of focus, we have still only touched half the historic market.
The untouched half is not scraps — it includes whole neighborhoods with zero coverage (Northeast Minneapolis, 55101, the North End).
Growth through 2030 does not require a new market, new geography, or a new product. It requires reaching the 45,000 doors we already know exist.
Revenue path, three paces
Hold at 2026 pace
Plan · +15%/yr
Stretch · +25%/yr
$43.7M
Hold — cumulative 2027–30 · reaches 12% of untouched
$62.8M
Plan — cumulative 2027–30 · reaches 17% of untouched
$78.8M
Stretch — cumulative 2027–30 · reaches 21% of untouched
What this assumes
2026 historic revenue lands at the $10.9M full-year projection. Average job holds near $8,400, which is the observed average across 12,000 matched estimates and is conservative for pre-1940 frame homes. The +15% plan matches what we have said bid volume can sustainably grow; +25% is meaningfully under the 26% we have actually averaged since 2022, so the stretch case assumes we merely keep doing what we have been doing. Even the stretch leaves four of every five untouched historic homes still untouched in 2030 — this market does not run out.
Where to point the machine: the Map and Heat views rank the biggest untouched clusters live. The playbook stays the one that built the last four years: knock and mail the dense pre-1920 pockets first, carpentry-led in fall, paint-led in spring.