Revenue & the path to $30M
Sold jobs only, by sold date, from the 17 August 2026 export. 12,552 sold jobs, $80.9M lifetime.
2025 actual
$15.90M
2,307 jobs · $6,892 avg
2026 projected
$18.96M
2,584 jobs · $7,338 avg
Booked to 17 Aug
$12.82M
1,709 jobs
Yes — 2026 is tracking meaningfully better than 2025. $12.82M is booked through 17 August. Over 2021–25 the first 7.5 months carried 67.6% of full-year sold revenue (weighted toward the last two years). That puts 2026 at $18.96M, with a range of $18.2M to $20.1M depending on which year's seasonality you believe. Job count lands near 2,584, up 277 on 2025.
Where the revenue comes from
| Segment | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 proj | 2026 jobs | 2026 avg job | % of 2026 |
|---|
Res Ext lead paint is 57% of revenue and it is where the growth is. Interior splits almost evenly between lead and non-lead and runs at roughly half the job size. Commercial and multi-family is under 2% and shrinking. There is no siding-replacement line below because the CRM does not track one — see the note at the bottom.
Revenue by year, and how much is res ext lead paint
Where the growth came from
| Year | Revenue | Growth | Biggest contributors to the change |
|---|
Two-thirds of the last three years of growth is one segment. Res Ext lead paint added $3.18M in 2024, $0.94M in 2025 and a projected $2.12M in 2026. Interior lead was the surprise second engine in 2025 at +$0.91M. Commercial has gone backwards two of the last three years.
What one lead-paint customer is actually worth
| First job was | Households | First job $ | Follow-on $ | Lifetime multiple | Come back |
|---|
The measured waterfall is real but smaller than it feels — so far.
Households first won on a res-ext lead-paint job have spent 1.11× their first job to date, with 13.6% buying again. Of that follow-on money, 50% is more exterior and 42% is interior, so the interior pull-through is genuine.
But this number is censored. Our records start in 2018 and a repaint cycle is longer than that, so almost nobody has come due for a second exterior yet. The 2018 cohort, now 8.6 years old, is at 1.22× and 24% repeat — the highest of any cohort, and still climbing. Follow-on accrues at roughly 2–3% of first-job value per year with no second-cycle wave visible yet. Treat 1.11× as a floor, not the answer.
What $30M by 2029 requires
| Year | Revenue | Growth | Jobs at flat AJS | Jobs if AJS +5%/yr |
|---|
16.6%/yr gets there from $18.96M. We have run 21.7%/yr since 2022, so $30M by 2029 sits below our own trend line. The lever that matters most is average job size: at +5%/yr we need about 3,300 jobs in 2029 instead of 4,088.
Things this data cannot tell you
Siding replacement is not tracked. There is no siding job type in the CRM. Across all 33,849 rows the words siding / Hardie / LP Smart appear 107 times, almost all of them customer surnames or lost-reason notes, totalling $286k of sold work that is already counted inside Res Ext. If siding replacement is going to be part of the $30M, it needs its own job type before it can be measured.
Carpentry is mostly invisible for the same reason. Only 149 projected 2026 jobs carry a carpentry job type, worth $0.57M. Carpentry sold as part of a painting project is inside the Res Ext line and cannot be separated from this export.
The CRM lead-paint checkbox is wrong 35% of the time. Of 7,695 sold jobs matched to a county parcel, the checkbox says “not lead” on 2,688 homes that were actually built before 1978. It almost never errs the other way (6 cases). Every lead figure on this page uses the county build year, not the checkbox.
Coverage. 69.4% of sold jobs match a Hennepin or Ramsey parcel. Dakota, Washington, Anoka, Carver, Scott and St Croix have no parcel data loaded, so jobs there fall back to the checkbox and are under-counted as lead.